
10:04 am
Moderators
May 22, 2012

after the latest start treaty, russia and the us are supposed to limit their strategic arsenals to around 3500 warheads.
so far, i havent found any source claiming that china has ever had more than 400 warheads, total. most say around 250.
assuming perfect accuracy and zero countermeasures, that means a maximum of 250 targets that china can destroy. most of those targets would be military or industrial centers, with a smattering of major population centers. plus, plenty of those warshots would be aimed at south korea, japan, probably russia, too. the chinese and the russians traditionally dont get along particularly well.
meanwhile, the american counterforce strike would reduce that by a large margin. for the birds that actually get aloft, well, the american abm program is pretty damned good.
china does have up to six ssbs, submarines with icbms. im really not worried about those, since im sure each of them has at least one attack sub sitting on it at all times. if they tried to launch, expect them to be sunk before the last missile leaves its silo.
all in all, the nuclear threat is fairly small, especially considering what it once was. the only significant nuclear arsenal, other than the us, is russia, and they are even more afraid of m.a.d. than we are. a nuclear war in the modern age would be messy, sure, but probably survivable. for most.
awfully paranoid, arent you?
10:13 am
September 17, 2012

10:13 am
September 17, 2012

10:48 am
Moderators
May 22, 2012

Just remember that 250 number was before they went underground and shortly after they started making them.
they started making them in the mid 60s.
mass-manufacturing nuclear weapons is not like building computers, it is difficult, expensive, time consuming, manpower intensive, and severely restricted by the amount of fissile material you can obtain [generally plutonium], which is monitored more closely than anything else on earth. reasonable estimates from the various professionals who worry about this shit for a living range up to the hundreds. im talking about today, not fifty years ago. china itself claims to have the smallest nuclear arsenal of the major nuclear powers.
since 1992, china has been a signatory to the nonproliferation treaty. best estimates from just a couple years ago dont even approach a thousand, usually around 250. i find it unlikely in the extreme that china could increase its inventory more than tenfold, without it being very obvious.
awfully paranoid, arent you?
10:58 am
September 17, 2012

I've read all of those reports and they are always different numbers. The States even said this …
According to the International Panel on Fissile Materials, China has produced an estimated 2 tons of plutonium for weapons. Some has been consumed in nuclear tests, leaving roughly 1.8 tons. The estimate is consistent with what the U.S. government has stated and theoretically enough for 450-600 warheads.
Total production of HEU is thought to have been approximately 20 tons. Some has been spent in nuclear tests and research reactor fuel, leaving a stockpile of some 16 tons. That’s theoretically enough for roughly 640-1,060 warheads.
I've posted this video on here before but it's a good one
Claps hands
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